Senate. As always, the data from our polls showed that starting weeks ago. Updated Nov. 8, 2016. "We know polls do a poor job with emotion/enthusiasm/commitment," Evans Witt, head of Princeton Survey Research and president of the National Council on Public Polls, emailed NPR. Check back on the home page to see how the most recent polls are shaking out. [CDATA[ Since Jeb has suspended his campaign, we’ve reset the poll on the home page, and archived the latest results below – the last poll that will include Bush, unless he is chosen as a running mate…. Email. Read headlines covering the presidential debates, polls, results, and more. Trump wins. What exactly may have caused systematic problems is what many people are questioning. See the latest estimates and poll results at HuffPost Pollster. Updated Nov. 8, 2016. Donald Trump did win the most electoral votes. But contrary to universally held expectations, Donald Trump shocked the political world by breaching the Democrats “blue The 2016 Presidential Election—An Abundance Of Controversies | Hoover Institution }(document, 'script', 'os-widget-jssdk')); If you’ve been following our polls the past few weeks (the most recent of which is below), you won’t be surprised by the news tonight – Cruz has been lagging way behind Kasich. All eyes will be on Ohio and Floriday today to see if Kasich and Rubio can win their home states. What about Bernie Sanders? Try our corporate solution for free! "I don't like admitting it myself. 2016 Election Forecast. Interestingly, the distance between the 2nd and 3rd place candidates has decreased since early February. This page displays the current 270toWin Polling Average for each state. Where that is not applicable, the most recent 2016 presidential election poll is used. // ]]> Shortly after the Democratic Presidential debate, we closed both polls. "https:" : "http:"; opst.type = 'text/javascript'; opst.async = true; opst.src = os_host + '//' + 'www.opinionstage.com/polls/2282997/embed.js'; (document.getElementsByTagName('head')[0] || document.getElementsByTagName('body')[0]).appendChild(opst); }()); This is what is called "social desirability bias" — the idea that voters give polling answers that for whatever reason they think will reflect well upon them, and it's the second reason Deane listed that polls could have been off. The same day it was closed, national news outlets echoed what 2016election.com had shown a week earlier – that Trump was leading the way. However, at latest count, Clinton is up by a little over half a percentage point over Trump in the popular vote (or about 725,000 votes). Some people just don't answer the phone. 'https://' : 'http://'), We suspect that most of the national polls (in the coming weeks) will show Fiorina with significant gains after this debate. President. (function(d, s, id){ var js, fjs = d.getElementsByTagName(s)[0], p = (('https:' == d.location.protocol) ? Less-educated whites heavily supported Trump — far more even than they supported Romney in 2012 or McCain in 2008. The American Association for Public Opinion Research is convening a committee to study this year's polling, but answers will be a long time coming, as the committee won't wrap up until May 2017. On the day before Super Tuesday, we reset the polls to get a fresh look at how our polls reflect what happens in the 11 states that have primaries. It's possible that some pollsters managed to miss Trump supporters in a big way, explains Claudia Deane, vice president of research at the Pew Research Center. [CDATA[ // ]]> These polls show Bernie Sanders and Ben Carson with significant leads over Hillary Clinton and Republican front-runners. As of 11PM ET Thursday night, Carly Fiorina and Donald Trump are tied in the polls. (function () { var opst = document.createElement('script'); var os_host = document.location.protocol == "https:" ? "https:" : "http:"; opst.type = 'text/javascript'; opst.async = true; opst.src = os_host + '//' + 'www.opinionstage.com/polls/2287135/embed.js'; (document.getElementsByTagName('head')[0] || document.getElementsByTagName('body')[0]).appendChild(opst); }()); [CDATA[ (function () { var opst = document.createElement('script'); var os_host = document.location.protocol == "https:" ? "https:" : "http:"; opst.type = 'text/javascript'; opst.async = true; opst.src = os_host + '//' + 'www.opinionstage.com/polls/2295563/embed.js'; (document.getElementsByTagName('head')[0] || document.getElementsByTagName('body')[0]).appendChild(opst); }()); Polling at 26%, he erased any gains he had made against Trump since January. The only notable change is that Bernie Sanders’ numbers were the lowest they’ve been since last August. // ]]> These polls were closed right before the 2nd Republican Debate. Check the home page tomorrow throughout the day to see if things have changed. That means they should theoretically get a pretty representative sample — after all, they're reaching out to people randomly. And if you scroll down to the January and December polls, you can see his numbers hovered around 2% to 3% – so a bump to 7% was a significant move for the Ohio Governor. [CDATA[ //